Australia's Electricity Crisis —
Unfiltered
Our mission is to provide credible, authoritative and non-partisan data and information to the national electricity debate.
TTNES will remain unbiased, examining verified information and data, consolidating this independent research, and distributing this research in correspondence with politicians, journalists, academics, public service decision-makers and the general public.
Our only interest is in ensuring the lowest cost and best value long-term electricity outcomes for the general public of Australia, along with a responsible forward position on national debt for future generations.
Recent Correspondence
Recent TTNES letters and publications — click any card to read in full
Table 2.2.6 — Australian Electricity Generation Forecast
Prepared 2 July 2026 | National generation in GWh (includes WA and NT) | Actual data source: energy.gov.au
| Source | Actual 2024–25 | % | Forecast 2029–30 | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Black Coal | 93,309 | 70,000 | ||
| Brown Coal | 30,417 | 25,000 | ||
| Natural Gas | 47,951 | 50,000 | ||
| Oil Products | 4,797 | 5,000 | ||
| Total Non-renewable | 176,474 | 62% | 150,000 | 49% |
| Bagasse / Wood | 1,841 | 2,000 | ||
| Biogas | 1,390 | 1,500 | ||
| Wind | 35,554 | 52,000 | ||
| Hydro | 14,078 | 17,000 | ||
| Large-scale Solar PV | 19,837 | 31,500 | ||
| Small-scale Solar PV | 33,224 | 50,000 | ||
| Geothermal | — | — | ||
| Nuclear | — | — | ||
| Total Renewable | 105,924 | 38% | 154,000 | 51% |
| Total Generation | 282,398 | 100% | 304,000 | 100% |
The Government has set a target of 82% renewable generation by 2030. TTNES modelling forecasts only 51% — a shortfall of 31 percentage points.
Modelling Notes
Assumptions underpinning the 2029–30 forecast
- Actual statistics are taken from the Government's Department of Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Water website: energy.gov.au.
- The forecast takes into account population growth, increasing electrification, closure of heavy industry due to high cost of energy, measures to improve efficiency and reduce consumption, falling productivity, GDP growth, effect of batteries, and development of Data Centres.
- It is not yet evident whether Commercial Battery Storage will be a significant factor by 2030.
- The current Federal Government has set a Target of 82% of Generation from Renewable Sources by 2030. This is seen as grossly inaccurate and unachievable.
- The current Victorian Government aims to source 20% of the State's power needs from Offshore Wind by 2032 (2 GW or 12,000 GWh), and 4 GW by 2035, and 9 GW by 2040. These are also seen as clearly unachievable.
- Of the four major State economies, Victoria is the most vulnerable to an electricity crisis before 2040.
Five Reasons Australia's
Energy Policy Must Change
TTNES supports the transition to renewables. These five concerns are not arguments against the transition — they are arguments for doing it properly, with honest targets, credible planning, and adequate back-up.
1 The 82% Renewable Target is Physically Unachievable
TTNES modelling (Table 2.2.6, July 2026) forecasts that only 51% of electricity generation will come from renewable sources by 2030 — against the Government's stated target of 82%. The 2024–25 actual figure was 38%. The 31-percentage-point gap between TTNES's forecast and the Government's target represents a fundamental disconnect between political ambition and physical reality. This gap is distorting policy debate and will eventually discredit the entire Net Zero policy framework.
2 No Credible NEM Back-up Plan
There is no Government plan for sufficient NEM electricity back-up on days of no sun and no wind. TTNES calculates a shortfall of 995 GWh against a 2-day back-up requirement by 2035. The concept of a "hydro and battery alone" solution is not viable at the scale required. Without urgent action, the lights will go out, and industry, employment, and public transport will stop. Western Australia — which generates 60% of its electricity from gas — will not face this problem. The NEM states will.
3 Coal Retirement Ahead of Credible Replacements
Australia's aging coal generators are being retired on a schedule that is not matched by the construction of credible, dispatchable replacements. AEMO's own forecasts anticipate 90% of coal generation to be retired. Of the four major State economies, Victoria is identified as the most vulnerable to an electricity crisis before 2040. Unrealistic construction timeframes — including for transmission projects — compound this risk.
4 Electricity Costs Rising, Not Falling
The transition must reduce consumer electricity costs — not increase them. Costs have risen for several years. Taxpayer funding for electricity generation lacks transparency, making it impossible for the public to assess whether policy is delivering value for money. A credible pathway to Net Zero must include realistic and publicly accountable costings for all major projects, including generation, storage, and transmission.
5 Australia's Targets Inconsistent with Global Context
Australia produces only 1.1% of global emissions. The country's electricity policy and targets must be consistent with the goals and actions of major emitters, or Australia imposes unilateral economic damage for negligible global benefit. A Net Zero target that is not shared or matched by major emitters — and that drives up energy costs and reduces industrial competitiveness — does not serve the national interest.
About TTNES
The Think Tank was founded in 2024 by 3 Australians who were confused about the conflicting information and data being published about the transition to renewable electricity.
The polarising information came from both sides of the debate and was clearly driven by vested interests or by unrealistic ideology. Political decision-making appeared to be flawed.
We are an "Unregistered Private Independent Unfunded Not-for-profit Organisation". We have no commercial investments in the electricity sector and receive no government funding.
We fact-check information published by both sides of the debate and advise all levels of Government and Opposition, as well as briefing media.
Founding Members
Jim Bain BAppSc (Melbourne University) MBA (London Business School) — over 40 years of local and international experience in the energy sector and electricity distribution. Jim is based in Canberra.
Jim Balderstone BEng (Melbourne University) — a career of experience in global energy projects (Australia, Africa, Asia and the Middle East) including combined-cycle gas turbines and small-scale solar and battery storage. Jim now lives near Sydney.
Andrew Hackworth BEng (Melbourne University) — a career of experience with global energy projects (Australia, Asia and the Middle East). Andrew is based in Melbourne.
Methodology
TTNES modelling takes into account:
- Population growth and increasing electrification of transport and industry
- Closure of heavy industry driven by high energy costs
- Measures to improve efficiency and reduce consumption
- Falling productivity and GDP growth
- Realistic construction timeframes for generation, storage, and transmission projects
- AEMO forecasts for coal retirement
All modelling is conducted independently. We welcome scrutiny and correction. If you believe our numbers are wrong, please write to us with your evidence.
Kincumber, NSW Central Coast
Private, independent, non-partisan
2024
Bowen, Ley, O'Brien, Tehan
TTNES supports the transition away from coal.
TTNES insists the pathway must be honest, achievable, and annually measurable.
TTNES opposes targets that are known to be unachievable and that distort public debate.
Contact TTNES
We welcome correspondence from politicians, journalists, academics, researchers, and members of the public. If you believe our modelling is wrong, please write to us with your evidence — we will respond.
Postal Address
PO Box 6259
Kincumber NSW 2251
Australia
Electronic Contact
Head of Communications
Media Enquiries
Please email in the first instance.